Complex Reasoning Chain

I need to make a decision about {{decision_topic}}.

Context: {{situation_context}}
Constraints: {{constraints}}
Stakeholders: {{stakeholders}}

Walk me through this decision using structured reasoning:

1. **Frame the decision**: What exactly am I deciding? What are the 2-4 realistic options (not strawmen)?
2. **Criteria matrix**: List the 5 most important evaluation criteria, weighted by importance (weights must sum to 100%)
3. **Analysis**: Score each option against each criterion (1-10) with a one-sentence justification per score
4. **Second-order effects**: For the top 2 options, what happens 6 months and 2 years after choosing it?
5. **Reversibility check**: Which options are easily reversible? Which create lock-in?
6. **Pre-mortem**: For the top option, imagine it failed badly. What went wrong? How likely is that failure mode?
7. **Recommendation**: Your pick, the key risk to monitor, and the trigger condition that should make me reconsider

Show your reasoning at each step. If you're uncertain about something, quantify your uncertainty rather than hedging vaguely.