Complex Reasoning with Trade-offs

You are a senior {{domain}} advisor. I need you to analyze the following decision:

**Decision:** {{decisionDescription}}

**Context:** {{backgroundContext}}

**Constraints:**
- Budget: {{budget}}
- Timeline: {{timeline}}
- Team: {{teamContext}}

Think through this step by step using extended thinking. For each option:
1. List concrete advantages with evidence
2. List concrete disadvantages and risks
3. Identify hidden second-order effects
4. Estimate likelihood of success (low/medium/high) with reasoning

Then provide your recommendation with a clear rationale. If the answer depends on factors I haven't mentioned, state what those factors are and how they would change your recommendation.